In the balance of terror is the economy, as the optimism of the last two months for a phased exit from the crisis by the end of 2009, the drain potential and the negative scenarios severe back. The financial outlook of the country remains the greatest threat and executives of the banks do not hesitate to declare that fear of a new projection of the spread of Greek bond or a deterioration of credit quality is a daily agony.
The landing of the negative estimates for the losses in tourism, it seems to lock in 15% and despite the fact that cause relief is not likely to reverse the image pessimism. The prospect of increased unemployment, more than the 9.5% level, is the nightmare scenario, as it removes all hope of recovery and exit from the crisis, even when other European economies, to find equilibrium and show signs off. Banking executives remind that our country «felt» about a year after the start of the crisis and provide that at this stage that the problem is the culmination, the reflexes of the country below the true dimension of the problem.
The danger, as pointed out, «from the economy rather than the banking system and the ability of banks to raise liquidity depends on the progress of the country». As for customers, they rely on banks and the executives responsible, insisting that the banks have to stop this problem, helping to refinance old debts.
The elements of the Bank of Greece for the decline 5mino credit growth at 8.8%, is a noble reading, after reflecting the annual change and still relies on the dynamics of the high growth of 2008. In this context, achieving a rate of 5% over the year, it is unlikely that many will speak of further decline.
The rising unemployment will trigger delays and increase of risk for banks, as they affect specific customer segment and geographic areas, which showed a high dependence on bank loans and the propensity to finance consumption through cards and consumer loans. The scenarios prepared by banks have reason to write more than 5 billion euros in total portfolio of 40 billion now remaining in the form of consumer credit.
The projections for 2010 refer to negative rates of credit growth in consumer credit and it is interesting that the banks already, approve only 20% of applications every day and reaching the 5000 day, when before the crisis the number of applications and reached even 20,000. The banks now assess the evidence of devotion to the white list and Tiresias, having now acquired a sufficient number of historical data, note that the picture was about two years ago, when sold in plastic money with ease, represents the actual level of borrowing Greek households.
The limited number of applications approved, accompanied by an increase in complaints of contracts for consumer loans, which have almost quadrupled from 3000 which was in June 2008, have ektinachthei to 11,000 this year. Similar is the picture of the complaints of which go to banks for credit cards, which by 5500 was the last in June, reached 11,000 this year. The data from the banks already show a tripling of the delays, while the projections for the future show that 63% – 67% of delays, from 30 to 120 days, will deteriorate and will eventually move to termination of the contract and start of procedures for seizure.
The increase in auctions is a necessary consequence. At 6 months, auctions are 60% more than the same period last year and is estimated to reach the year 7000 from 4500 in 2007 and 5,000 in 2008.
Crash test for TEMPME
The last stronghold of the Greek economy, businesses are expected to form the embankment for the containment of credit growth in single-digit, even pace in 2008. Already in 5mino financing rate fell to 10.2% from 18.7% in 2008, while much of the loans provided were refinancing existing debts. The funding of 3.2 billion, which came through in the first TEMPME 3mino of 2009 struck the market, one of which saw uncovered checks to increase by 228% and to exceed 1.3 billion. In the second cycle of loans TEMPME have given so far about 13,000 loans and credits to reach 1 billion, but the disbursement of pstoseon brave and of course requirement. The banks will claim in August the first installment of the loans granted in the first quarter and the capacity to meet this requirement will be a critical crash test. This is 15% of total disbursements made in healthy firms, with three profitable years, which will become even more important, since this time no one can talk about welsher.
